Florida Lottery – Winning Strategy According To Math


By T. D. ThorntonTurn the clock back a dozen years and recall when a fledgling filly parlayed a November win in the GII Golden Rod S. into a torrid nine-stakes win streak that culminated in Horse of the Year honors.
That filly, of course, was Rachel Alexandra.
Now it’s 2021, and the Fair Grounds annually honors Rachel Alexandra’s brief (one win, one second) tenure in New Orleans with a Grade II stakes race in mid-February. Saturday’s edition just so happened to feature the one-two fillies from the Nov. 28 Golden Rod S. at Churchill Downs, a race that stood out as the most visually impressive two-turn stakes of 2020 in the juvenile fillies division.

Three months ago, ‘TDN Rising Star’ Travel Column (Frosted) overcame a slow start and multiple logjams in the stretch to bull past fast-finishing Clairiere (Curlin) in the shadow of the wire. The final clocking of that 1 1/16 miles stakes was .54 seconds faster than Triple Crown-aspiring males ran one race later in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., signaling both fillies (separated by only a length) might be worth watching down the road.
Not surprisingly, Travel Column was backed to even-money favoritism in the 3-year-old debut for both rivals in the Rachel Alexandra, while Clairiere went off as the 2-1 second choice. Travel Column, a poised speedstress, broke running from her outside stall and asserted herself near the head of the field with a three-wide bid into the clubhouse turn. Clairiere, comfortable rating from a touch farther off the pace than in previous starts, broke inward from the one hole and hit the gate, so jockey Joe Talamo allowed the bay to settle into stride by her lonesome, eighth and last at the fence.
Travel Column led the main body of the pack while sitting second down the backstretch, six lengths behind a 25-1 breakaway pacemaker who would eventually fade to last. The favorite appeared primed to pounce while getting a gift of a trip, but nemesis Clairiere more arrestingly caught the eye as she began building a wave of momentum five furlongs out with a well-measured uncoiling from the back of the pack that belied her two races of experience.
Rail-running Clairiere inhaled half the field by the time the pack tightened up at the half-mile pole, but Talamo had to tap the brakes a touch over the next furlong because she was momentarily hemmed in. When he cued Clairiere to quicken three-eighths out, her response was instant, and the two shot up the reopened rail on the prowl after Travel Column, who by the midway point on the turn had seized first run on the wilting speed and was obviously the filly to beat.
Turning for home, Talamo expertly vacated the rail and split foes to avoid getting trapped behind the caving pacemaker, then switched back to the fence in upper stretch to keep from running up on the heels of Travel Column. Initially, the body language of the two fillies and the actions of their riders appeared to favor Travel Column, because the even-striding gray had yet to be fully set down by Florent Geroux while Talamo was already imploring Clairiere for more after she had already given plenty.
In fact, Talamo’s decision to switch to Clairiere to the outside of Travel Column at the eighth pole initially had a “one lateral move too many” look to it. But when Clairiere clearly saw her target and took off in determined pursuit, it amounted to a fourth distinct move over the course of a prolonged five-furlong drive, a remarkable in-race tactical progression that is unusual for a newly turned 3-year-old filly to accomplish so deftly. And it wasn’t like Clairiere was reeling in a tired filly, either. Both finished well, but Clairiere finished better. Her winning margin of a neck was augmented by a confident gallop-out that kept her rival at bay well past the wire.
Clairiere’s final time for 1 1/16 miles was 1:45.34. She was initially assigned a provisional 83 Beyer Speed Figure (same number as her Golden Rod second), but by Sunday that Beyer got adjusted upward to an 85. Interestingly, the final eighth for the Rachel Alexandra clocked in at 6.28 seconds, slightly faster than the 6.36 final furlong that undefeated older male Maxfield (Street Sense) ran in the same-distance GIII Mineshaft S. two races earlier on the card.
Clairiere is owned and bred by Stonestreet Stables and trained by Steve Asmussen, the same connections who acquired Rachel Alexandra after her 20 1/4-length dismantling of the 2009 GI Kentucky Oaks field. She then, in succession, won the GI Preakness S., GI Mother Goose S., GI Haskell Invitational S. and GI Woodward S.
Clairiere is now on a path that could very well lead to an Oaks berth. She’s certainly bred to cover a distance of ground–both her sire, Curlin, and damsire, Bernardini, were Preakness  victors (among other multiple Grade I stakes they won up to 10 furlongs), and her dam, Cavorting, was a MGISW up to nine furlongs for Stonestreet.
Clairiere shouldn’t be saddled with expectations of turning into another Rachel Alexandra. But right now she and Travel Column are supplying the sport with something sorely lacking across almost every division–a competitive, evenly matched rivalry that is fun to watch play out from race to race. The 1-2-3 finishers from last November’s GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies have yet to start as 3-year-olds, but these two have already hooked up twice in that interim, delivering a spectacular show on both occasions. Here’s rooting for another rematch in the near future.

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Florida Lottery – Winning Strategy According To Math


วันเสาร์ที่ 13 กุมภาพันธ์ 2564 เวลา 19:02 น. | กลับไปที่: ข่าวเด่นอัปเดต: 13 กุมภาพันธ์ 2021 เวลา 19:10 น. Clairiere (f, 3, Curlin-Cavorting โดย Bernardini) อันดับที่สองตามหลังคอลัมน์การเดินทาง ‘TDN Rising Star’ (Frosted) เมื่อเธอเห็นครั้งสุดท้ายใน GII คือ Golden Rod S. ที่ Churchill Downs เมื่อวันที่ 28 พฤศจิกายนพลิกตารางในการเปิดตัวครั้งที่สองของพวกเขาและยิงผ่านเงาเส้นลวดเพื่อทำคะแนน 2-1 Moon Swag (Malibu Moon) มาเป็นอันดับสาม เวลาสุดท้ายของ 1 1/16 ไมล์คือ 1: 45.34 Clairiere กลายเป็นผู้ชนะ Blacktype Winner 74th / 36th Graded Winner ทั่วโลกสำหรับ Curlin ชั้นนำ Clairiere เป็นลูกคนแรกของ Cavorting ที่ได้รับชัยชนะใน Class I สามครั้งสำหรับ Stonestreet Stables ในอาชีพการงานของเธอ เบอร์นาร์ดินีเป็นตัวแทนของบรอดแมร์ฝ่าบาทเช่นกันโดยผู้ชนะ GIII Mineshaft S. ผู้พ่ายแพ้อย่าง Maxfield (Street Sense) บันทึกอายุการใช้งาน: 3-2-1-0. O-Stonestreet Stables LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (Ky); T-Steve Asmussen ไม่ใช่สมาชิก? คลิกที่นี่เพื่อลงทะเบียน PDF หรือการแจ้งเตือนรายวัน เรื่องนี้ถูกนำเสนอในข่าวเด่นและเป็นจุดเด่นของ Cavorting, Clairiere, Curlin, Fairgrounds, Rachel Alexandra, Steve Asmussen, Stonestreet, Travel Column

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Florida Lottery – Winning Strategy According To Math

Monday’s Racing Insights: Seven-Figure Colt Debuts at Big A

Home » Archive » Shared News » Monday’s Racing Insights: Seven-Figure Colt Debuts at Big A

Sunday, February 7, 2021 at 11:00 am |
Back to: Shared News Updated: February 6, 2021 at 1:07 pm

Will E Sutton sells at Saratoga | Fasig-Tipton Photo

Sponsored by Alex Nichols Agency
1st-AQU, $80K, Msw, 3yo, 7f, 1:20 p.m. ETJonathan Thomas sends out $1-million Fasig-Tipton Saratoga grad Will E Sutton (Curlin) for Robert V. LaPenta, Stonestreet Stables and Bridlewood Farm on this card that was pushed back a day due to winter weather. The daughter of debut winner and  stakes-placed juvenile Yes Liz (Yes It’s True) sports an upbeat tab over the Belmont training track. TJCIS PPs
 

 

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This story was posted in Shared News and tagged Bridlewood Farm, Curlin, Fasig-Tipton, Jonathan Thomas, Robert LaPenta, Stonestreet Farm, Will E Sutton.

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Florida Lottery – Winning Strategy According To Math


During this era of globalisation, our own walk of life has also become ever more adapted to scale. In the old days, trainers and stallions alike would draw the line at a similar number: up to three dozen, say. Now all big brands seem to require big volume.
With stallion books, the traditional limits guaranteed undiluted quality. If you wanted to get a mare to Bold Ruler, boy, did she have to deserve the privilege. That’s why I always look for those venerable influences, up-and-down, behind modern pedigrees: because you’re getting the good stuff, whatever filters through.
Nowadays, however, science and avarice routinely conspire to corral 200-plus mares for many unproven young stallions, and I suspect we’ll be reaping a dismal harvest even after we introduce a ceiling of “only” 140.

The advent of the “super trainer” has been viewed with equal concern by many of the old school. How, they ask, can even the most masterly horsemen monitor every nuance as fastidiously as did Charlie Whittingham, when they have 10 times as many animals on their books–and, moreover, have to commute between divisions by plane?
Yet many of the biggest investors seem happy to forfeit that kind of intimate surveillance and it’s hard to argue with the results. Granted assistants of adequate caliber, the system is demonstrably equal to pressures of scale; and it schools elite trainers who themselves, in turn, start delegating responsibility to emerging talents.
The template for that process was Todd Pletcher, who learned his trade managing East Coast divisions for the mold-breaking Wayne Lukas. By prodigious focus, organization and dynamism, Pletcher has parlayed his talent into record-breaking yields since 1996. Only last weekend he became the first trainer to bank $400 million; he has seven Eclipse Awards as Outstanding Trainer (only the late Bobby Frankel even has five); and the many stallions he has made include Uncle Mo, Speightstown, More Than Ready, Quality Road, Munnings, English Channel and now Constitution.
This is the year Pletcher becomes eligible to take a place long reserved in the Hall of Fame. As such, you would imagine that he will be eager, through 2021, to reiterate his historic standing in the story of our sport. Because what we must always remember, looking at these industrial stables, is that they remain driven and defined by the human strengths and foibles of one individual. And, having just endured his slowest year since 2002 (obviously the COVID-squeezed program/prizemoney had an awful lot to do with that), Pletcher will definitely be looking to roll back strong this time ’round.
You don’t have the success he has made routine without harnessing phenomenal talent to equal ambition. And if his own career has itself been game-changing, Pletcher will know that one neglected paradox of the “super trainer” culture is that competition has been rendered tougher at the elite level, too. With no real limit on numbers, then the best material won’t be shared too far even at the very top.
In terms of how long they have been on the scene, Pletcher has to be bracketed closer with Bob Baffert than Chad Brown or Brad Cox. In age, however, he is actually closer to those young guns. At 53, Pletcher remains in his prime–and yet he has seen it all. Few conditioners of his years can ever have compiled a more comprehensive playbook of familiar challenges.
Little wonder if Shadwell, on the retirement of Kiaran McLaughlin, named Pletcher as their man. Remember that even last year–when the dust had barely settled, after all, on his first win in the GI Breeders’ Cup Classic–his 22% strike-rate was as metronomic as ever. And while Mutasaabeq (Into Mischief) is sadly off the GI Kentucky Derby trail with a minor shin issue, his 45 Triple Crown nominees match the second- and third-highest entries (Baffert 23, Steve Asmussen 22) combined.
And you need only consider the fields assembling for both the races carrying Derby points Saturday to heighten a sense that here is a trainer ready to regroup and reassert.
Known Agenda (Curlin) contests the GIII Sam F. Davis S. with his reputation freshly gilded by the performance at Gulfstream last week of Greatest Honour (Tapit). Even in opening up by 21 lengths on the third, that colt hadn’t been able to get past him in a stretch duel at Aqueduct in November. The St Elias Stable homebred has already demonstrated plenty of stamina, then, albeit his damsire Byron (GB) (Green Desert) was a brisk horse with a brisk page. (Plenty of fuel, you guess, coming through from Darshaan (GB) (Shirley Heights GB) behind his second dam.)
We’ll cheerfully put a line through Known Agenda’s subsequent effort in the GII Remsen S., where so unhappy on the slop that his rider resorted to the whip a couple of times on the backstretch. His maiden success, after all, has meanwhile been boosted by the distant third, barnmate Overtook (Curlin), who now graduates to stakes company in the GIII Withers S.
Actually St Elias Stable, that reliable badge of class, also has a piece of this improver. His closing style will presumably contrast with Pletcher’s other runner here, Donegal Bay (Uncle Mo), who shook off his pursuers nicely breaking his maiden. All these horses are bred for the job, too. Known Agenda is out of a Grade I winner; likewise Overtook, a $1 million yearling tracing to Numbered Account; and though Donegal Bay was picked up for $90,000, he belongs to a Juddmonte family of Classic accomplishment.
Let’s be under no illusions, then. Even if Goliath nowadays finds himself in an armlock with opponents of equal brawn, it’s still an awful lot harder being David. And there’s no mistaking who fills that role here.
Capo Kane (Street Sense) was a $26,000 2-year-old purchase–his pinhooker no doubt caught in the COVID backdraft, after giving $75,000 the previous September–and gave trainer Harold Wyner the first stakes success of his life in the Jerome S.
Wyner is the ultimate journeyman. He first came over from Britain with Michael Dickinson, drifted around for a few years as an exercise rider, saddled six winners in two years when trying his luck as a trainer, and then spent four years installing satellite televisions. But he couldn’t keep away, and this time last year must have thought that his perseverance was finally going to pay off. He had assisted in the purchase of a Cross Traffic colt, who had failed to make his reserve as a 2-year-old at $27,000. Wyner trained Ny Traffic through his first four starts, but the horse was then transferred to Saffie Joseph, Jr. and became a Grade I regular.
No need to dwell on that now. Capo Kane is another Timonium graduate and Wyner knows him inside out, as the most literally hands-on of trainers: he gallops as many of his charges as he can every day. So he knows there’s more to come from Capo Kane, who drifted out even as he went clear in the Jerome. There’s turf royalty in his family–second dam by Kingmambo out of Tuzla (Fr) (Panoramic GB), who missed the GI Breeders’ Cup Mile by a neck–and that shows in the ease and athleticism of his movement; while on the other hand his sire beat his damsire in the 2007 Derby.
Third that day was Curlin, sire of Known Agenda and Overtook. Seems like that class still can’t leave each other alone. Street Sense, of course, was saddled by a revered horseman in Carl Nafzger, who started a total of 17 animals that whole year. Context: Asmussen topped the 2020 prizemoney table with 630 starters, followed by Cox with “only” 328. But there’s only ever one Derby winner out there–and there’s no reason he can’t be among Wyner’s two dozen charges at Parx.
Meanwhile, we’ll be keeping an eye on the two debut winners Baffert runs in the GII San Vicente S., having won the race last year with a horse of similar profile in Nadal (Blame). One of them, the Wests’ homebred Concert Tour (Street Sense), shares his sire with Capo Kane; the other, Freedom Fighter, while he has a powerful ownership group, is a $120,000 son of Violence who was there to be found at Keeneland as Hip 1522.
Don’t forget we’ve just seen what this guy can do with a $1,000 short yearling/$35,000 2-year-old by Protonico. With 118 starters in 2020, Baffert ranked 41st in the nation by numbers. No “super trainer,” then–but I guess he’s doing okay.

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Florida Lottery – Winning Strategy According To Math


วันจันทร์ที่ 1 กุมภาพันธ์ 2564 เวลา 12:20 น. | Back to: Shared News, Top News Updated: 1 กุมภาพันธ์ 2021 เวลา 12:21 น. Lady Apple (ซ้าย) | Coady Photography Lady Apple (Curlin-Miss Mary Apples จาก Clever Trick) ซึ่งเป็นอันดับสามในปี 2019 GI Kentucky Oaks ได้เกษียณอายุแล้วและจะได้รับการอบรมในเกรด I sire Quality Road เจ้าของ Phoenix Thoroughbred ประกาศเมื่อวันจันทร์ ผู้ชนะ Class III สี่สมัย – ใน Fantasy S. 2019 ที่ Iowa Oaks ใน Remington Park Oaks และใน Houston Ladies Classic 2020 Steve Asmussen ได้รับการฝึกสอนจากอ่าวในอาชีพส่วนใหญ่ของเธอ Bred โดย KatieRich Farms ในรัฐเคนตักกี้เด็กวัย 5 ขวบได้รับตำแหน่งรองชนะเลิศครั้งแรกที่ Keeneland สำหรับผู้ฝึกสอน Mark Hubley ในเดือนเมษายน 2018 หลังจากแสดง RNA-RNAing ในราคา $ 100,000 ในงาน Keeneland September Yearling Sale 2017 จากนั้นฟีนิกซ์ก็ซื้อมาเป็นม้าและวิ่งไปกับเคธี่ริชในทุกสิ่งเริ่มต้นนอกเหนือจากสองคนสุดท้ายของเธอ พวกเขาซื้อ KatieRich เมื่อซื้อ 1.2 ล้านเหรียญใน Fasig-Tipton Kentucky Fall Mixed Sale เมื่อฤดูใบไม้ร่วงที่ผ่านมา Lady Apple เป็นอันดับสามในงาน Joseph E. Spanky Broussard Memorial S. ในเดือนธันวาคมที่งานแสดงสินค้าและที่งาน GIII Houston Ladies Classic S. ในวันอาทิตย์ในการออกสตาร์ทสองครั้งสุดท้ายของเธอและได้เกรด 19-6-2-4 และ ชนะ $ 1,078,324 เมื่อเกษียณอายุ “ เธอเป็นม้าแข่งที่ยอดเยี่ยมสำหรับเราและเธอจะเป็นส่วนเสริมที่ยอดเยี่ยมในฟาร์มเพาะพันธุ์ของเรา” Amer Abdulaziz ซีอีโอของ Phoenix Thoroughbreds กล่าวในแถลงการณ์ “เธอมีสายเลือดระดับเฟิร์สคลาสและมีประวัติการแข่งรถในขณะที่ Cross with Quality Road ดูน่าตื่นเต้นมาก” Lady Apple เป็นลูกสาวของเพื่อนเจ้าสาว Miss Mary Apples โดย GII Schuylerville S. และเป็นน้องสาวของ SW และ GII Hendrie S. คนที่สองดร. Diamonds Prize (Pure Prize) และ MSW Miss Red Delicious (Empire Maker) หลังได้โยน GIII Soaring Softly S. Heldin Nootka Sound (Lonhro Aus) ไปแล้ว ในขณะที่ลูกครึ่งอีกคนเป็นผู้อำนวยการสร้าง Mark Mile โดย GI Maker (Lonhro Aus) Senor Pete (Green Dancer) ผู้ชนะของ GI Futurity S. อยู่ภายใต้มารดาคนที่สี่ ไม่ใช่สมาชิก? คลิกที่นี่เพื่อลงทะเบียน PDF หรือการแจ้งเตือนรายวัน เรื่องราวนี้ได้รับการเผยแพร่ใน Shared News, Top News และแท็ก Amer Abdulaziz Salman, Curlin, Lady Apple, Miss Mary Apples, Phoenix Thoroughbred, Quality Road

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